I have closely watched several national stories to try and understand trends in these disunited States. Obviously trying to predict the future is often a fool’s errand. If anyone actually could accurately predict the future for even a single day, with a tiny investment they would never need to work again. However, it is my strong opinion that you can logically predict trends better than specific events.
I have watched the special elections in Wyoming, and Georgia. By the way, thank you, Patriots, for not inflicting gun grabbing, baby murdering politicians on the rest of us. One of the things I have watched over the last 12 months or so, is the budget battle in Illinois. I believe the outcome helps us understand patterns.
Here is something I have suggested for a very long time. Watching the annihilation of the cities under liberal democratic control, I realized that it would spread to States that are dominated by progressives. That is the core concept of “political migration.” That what has happened to Detroit, will happen to entire States, it just takes longer for the rot to spread. Larger bodies take longer for the gangrene green to spread. It takes longer for the necrosis to spread but it will. Your choice is to live in Detroit or move.
However even moving from failed death spiral blue states to conservative Red States give you time, it is not a solution in of itself. Simply put, if I offer every single voting adult in America “free money” or “be responsible for yourself” the “free money” would win. By a lot. Every time. This is your core issue; men are fallen, they want the easiest path. Moreover, they vote. There is also an opposite effect. Eventually those who pay taxes get sick of loosing so much of their property for the benefit of others. They start to figure out means of “tax avoidance.”
Now, what does Illinois provide interesting data on this issue? Illinois has people who have voted for politicians who promise ever increasing benefits. International socialist backed organizations completely dominate the K-12 schools, they dominate all manner of government through their unions. They have extracted massive pensions and monies from the public treasury. As I have predicted for years, people who can have fled Illinois. Per the Chicago Tribune “Illinois has lost more residents than any other state, losing 37,508 people in 2016, which puts its population at the lowest it has been in nearly a decade…” In addition Chicago’s population declined by 8,638 people from July 2015 to July 2016, a larger loss than any other major American city. It is my opinion that these are some of the more “productive” (i.e. tax payers) people as they can move. People stuck in the horrid situation they have built for themselves like Detroit may not have the option of picking up stakes and moving.
The people of Illinois tried to vote for a new Republican Governor Bruce Rauner who had a very little political experience. Bruce Rauner was a rich guy who came on the scene promising the fight for the tax payer. He said all the right words. He won. He has fought for several years to bring about significant reforms in Illinois finances. He has failed to do this. Recently apparently he has failed and is surrendering. It is being reported that he has surrendered to Democratic House Speaker Mike Madigan and agreed to a 32% increase in the personal income tax, and additional over 30% increase in corporate income tax plus they are raising the property taxes across the State. You have to admit; socialist Democrats are committed to their objectives. Can you say the same thing about “small government” Republicans?
People and businesses were already fleeing Illinois. I would predict more people will flee as taxes are raised even higher. I also predict the concept of “death spiral” where fewer and fewer people choose to pay for the benefits their neighbors vote for will increase. If you want to see how that ends, read about another situation I have followed which is the US Territory of Puerto Rico under socialist Democratic control for decades. They are the first territory to essentially file for bankruptcy, which should be illegal, but of course, it is not for the powerful. Even liberal progressive Puerto Ricans are fleeing. Unfortunately, they appear to be bringing their “more taxes” rot with them. Like the Mexican immigrants in large part.
It also shows how a guy like Illinois Republican Governor Bruce Rauner who has done very well in the private sphere can utterly fail when put into government. You can be the greatest CEO in the history of the world, but when you move into politics, the person who has an entire career in our too large government can be much more effective manipulating our government. Democratic House Speaker Mike Madigan has been Speaker for over 30 years. I saw what happened to Governor Arnold Schwenner who was elected as a conservative Republican but after a couple of losses governed as a centrist Democrat. This apparently has happened to Illinois Governor Bruce Rauner. This could happen to Donald Trump.
As a matter of fact, that is the plan of the national progressive Democrats. How this does explain why people are beginning to support candidates who appear to be further and further away from the middle. They want people who are going to fight to the death as that is apparently what it takes.
Illinois the State is looking more and more like Chicago its largest failed city. Those who can flee, are fleeing the increasing taxes, decreasing government services it brings. If something significant does not change the State of Illinois will resemble the city of Chicago. I do not’ see what changes as authoritarian Progressives and socialist Democrats feel “more taxes” is the answer and Republicans surrender their principles for a “good deal.” Get out if you can, and then where ever you end up, vote to make sure what has happened to your previous home never happens to your new home.